I took an online poll in 2020 when we had like 18 Democratic candidates running and Biden was in my bottom three (I fully admit to being a Liz Warren guy
I was a Liz Warren guy, too.
As much as I like Warren, I don't think she's a good
politician. She's great at lawyering and debating, but her messaging is often muddled and she never bothered becoming a household name. As much as she accomplished in the Senate, she should've been the clear frontrunner in 2020. She's 10 times the Senator that Sanders is, yet people didn't know about her because she's never been good at the popularity contest.
Both she and Sanders were too old, even in 2016, but that's an aside.
My only hope is that none of the morons the Republican party is churning out have the cult of personality to carry on Trump's legacy. I hope Barron is an uncharismatic idiot like his brothers and isn't someone they can groom to be the next Nero. But I also think we're staring down the barrel of a population that is alternately meaner and/or easier to bamboozle so the next guy won't even need Trump's level of smarmy charisma to pull them in
We've dug a deep hole in this country. As you said, we have masked agents of the state kidnapping high school students. The hole is so deep that you can barely see the light anymore. That said, there is hope. The Republican Party was in dire straits in 2015: Democrats won total cultural victory, the GOP had won one popular vote since 1988, and
Donald Trump was their nominee for president. Many people, myself included, were saying the Republican Party was dying a slow and painful death.
A decade on, things have flipped. The GOP controls the trifecta, tech bros run the world, they won their first popular vote since 2004, and Donald Trump is synonymous with American politics. Things flip
fast.
In 2028, we know things are going to be grim. Trump will be exceedingly unpopular. The GOP will likely face major economic and social backlash. I think people are already waking up to how brutal and inhumane deportation is. Imagine how it'll look when we spend untold billions on "detention centers." Harris couldn't get far enough away from Biden, and that was in a booming economy. If Democrats do their jobs, you'll be able to say the same of the GOP with Trump in 2028.
Things look bad for Democrats. With the current leadership, they'll stay bad. But I think a change election is coming in 2026. There are going to be a lot of notable Democrats out of work in 2027. I think this is going to be a 2010 Tea Party-style election for Democrats.
As for 2028, the Democratic bench is deep. I have a lot easier time seeing Pritzker, AOC, or Buttigieg winning a national election than any of the psychopaths on the Republican side.
Republican policies are
already unpopular. They always are. They'll be worse when the country sees what they actually look like after Project 2025.
As sad and scary as it is, these things ebb and flow. Voters were proud to live in a compassionate country during Obama's presidency. Then they wanted a fake tough guy who punched down. Trump is special because he's great on TV, knows how to manipulate the media, and is a talismanic symbol of wealth and power for a particular sect of Americans. None of those things are replicable for the GOP, just as none of Obama's qualities have been replicable for the Democrats.
Yeah, I agree. I think the fact that we couldn't elect a white woman with a beloved (mostly) former president husband that oversaw the greatest economy in many of our lifetimes should have probably told us we weren't ready for a female president at all (let alone a non-white one) and running a female candidate right now - specifically one that doesn't already have massive support - is virtue-signalling political suicide.
I disagree.
For a long time, I thought Donald Trump got lucky to win in 2016. And to be fair, he did. He won three states by like 20k votes after Hillary's emails dominated media coverage for a full month. But he's also a JFK-style messianic figure to low-propensity voters.
I said somewhere on this site that I didn't think Clinton, Biden, or Harris were bad candidates. They were perfectly average candidates. Against an average GOP nominee, they probably all have a good chance to win an election. In retrospect, it's clear that Trump is not that.
After W destroyed Kerry in 2004, I guarantee you no one thought a Black man named Barack Hussein Obama would solve all of our problems. Some candidates are larger than life. JFK, Obama, and now Trump. It happens. I don't think we can assume that the country won't vote for a Black woman because they didn't one time, especially against Donald Trump, American Kryptonite.
Every time he opens his mouth I lose more respect for humanity in general, because he's a charisma black hole and yet we've got grown men generating sexed-up AI art of him riding tanks into battle with a gun in one hand and a flag in the other.
The Atlantic wrote a piece about how the MAGA aesthetic is AI slop.
I think Seth Moulton is a fucking moron. But he's a white straight veteran who went to Harvard, from a money town, who speaks privileged white guy and I keep thinking just run the stuffed suit and try to get the train back on the tracks before we're an unfixable hole in the ground.
Maybe this is wishcasting, but I think this brand of politician is coming to an end. At least for now.
The Josh Shapiro types don't have a prayer at becoming the Democratic nominee in 2028. For one, he's another lawyer in a suit. For two, the Democratic base is fucking furious and won't accept a Diet Republican as nominee in 2028. At least, I don't think they will.
A couple months ago, Kat Abughazaleh announced her bid for Congress. I watched her campaign launch video the day it came out. I haven't been able to stop thinking about it since.
She's a 26-year-old Media Matters alum and TikToker. Her campaign site features this quote:
"I'm running for Congress because the same old shit isn't working — and it won't work to defeat Trump and Musk's agenda."
I think Americans, like,
all of us, want someone authentic who cares more for their constituents than special interests. Obviously some of us are better at deducing who that might be than others, but the point stands.
As much as I'd love to think that we could put her forth as a viable candidate, I know better. She's too divisive, even in her own party.
I hate to pick on a single sentence in your excellent post, but I don't think this is true. Normie Dems love AOC. Listen to this reception at the DNC: