I was listening to an interview on NPR talking to a guy who runs a business that sells toddler products (sippy cups and the like) and he said people in his sector have just stopped ordering right now. He said they had about 60 days of stock on hand, but that orders, once placed, take 45 days to fulfill. This was about a week ago, and that means we're nearing the end of the overlap where his company could cover it without the end consumer noticing a stock shortage.
If we assume this guy is the average for companies across the spectrum (excluding perishable items, of course), I'd assume most places have 30-90 days stock on hand. Which means people will start seeing it hit by the end of May. By July, if things haven't turned around, it could get really, really gnarly. Pandemic levels. I did what might seem silly and bought a bidet hose for my toilet because I know the moment anything runs low people will start stock piling toilet paper and I am not doing that song and dance again. If the country is going to shit my ass at least is going to be clean.