Football Talk

[puckace]

Amazing game tonight!
Unbelievable that the Niners are 12-4.
With all the major injuries this year and almost no pass rush, it's a miracle they have a chance for the #1 seed.
It's gonna be epic Saturday night

 

[TheSameIdiot]

The Niners can't keep getting away with it.

The NFC's 5 seed is secretly almost as valuable as winning the division this year. It might be more valuable than getting the 2, 3, or 4 seed. Going to Carolina or Tampa is about as easy as it gets in the playoffs.

I can't understand why the NFL picked BAL/PIT over SEA/SF. There are zero good teams in the BAL/PIT matchup.

 

[Misfit]

That is surprising. Maybe because Seattle was in that spot a year ago? I definitely don't care who wins BAL/PIT, though the Ravens could be the biggest wildcard in the playoffs if they get by the Steelers.

Patriots are AFC East champs with Buffalo's loss to the Eagles last night. I ended up at a local brewery as my brother-in-law was in town for hockey so we got to watch Buffalo lose there. There was a contingent of Eagles fans as well which made it fun. With the Chargers having little to play for next week, I don't expect them to put up much of a fight against Denver. The Patriots have turned into the walking wounded after having pretty great injury luck for the first couple months of the year so I don't think they'll go all out for a chance at the 1 seed. We're already upon the final weekend of the regular season. It's exciting to head into the playoffs, but it also sucks that the season is already over.

 

[fac]

Pittsburgh is one of the most popular national teams, and Rogers is still better known than Darnold or Purdy. Plus it is a do or die game for the playoffs for both Pitt and Baltimore - its just a seeding game for Seattle/SF - so more drama.

 

[puckace]

I can't understand why the NFL picked BAL/PIT over SEA/SF. There are zero good teams in the BAL/PIT matchup.

Pittsburgh is one of the most popular national teams, and Rogers is still better known than Darnold or Purdy. Plus it is a do or die game for the playoffs for both Pitt and Baltimore - its just a seeding game for Seattle/SF - so more drama.

Nah! East coast bias

 

[Boy Wonder]

Despite the awful weather, had a great time at the Bills-Eagles game on Sunday. Had a poncho and came over prepared to stay warm, so my only issue was that my boots weren't nearly as water proof as I thought, so had wet feet the entire game.

But got to hang out around the stadium all day leading up to the game and the fans were all cool even to a visiting fan. Any crap I got was purely playful and didn't see anyone else get into any serious altercations either.

But man, if that game ended 13-14 that way after standing out there so long like that, I'd have been pissed. But if I'm a Bills fan, then I'm feeling much more confident going into the playoffs than I currently am as an Eagles fan. That offense is so bad.

 

[TheSameIdiot]

Who feels confident right now? Every playoff team has major flaws.

If I had to bet my life on it, I'd take the Rams. Who, by the way, lost to a Falcons team with nothing to play for yesterday.

 

[canprime]

Who feels confident right now? Every playoff team has major flaws.

If I had to bet my life on it, I'd take the Rams. Who, by the way, lost to a Falcons team with nothing to play for yesterday.

I don't know. The Pats, Broncos, 49ers, Bears, Texans and Seahawks all look pretty solid going into the playoffs. The Bills, Eagles and Rams showed how fragile they are (hard to say as a Bills fan) right now. Everyone else I would put closer to the Bills/Eagles/Rams versus the others I mentioned.

The Ravens I just don't know. They showed how they could have been this year if they actually trusted going with Henry a lot more. My only take away from all the turmoil/rumour out of Baltimore right now is that maybe Lamar was being a bit of a primadonna and wanting the ball more so Henry got the short end of the stick. Now that he is out Henry can shine and Harbaugh doesn't have too worry about keeping Lamar happy over everything else. The problem is that if the Ravens run into a strong defense they don't have a good enough backup QB to offset that problem (at least from what I saw this week).

Either way I think this should be a great playoff season because there are so many questions around pretty much all the teams. I just wonder which of the top teams in the AFC will get bounced in the first game they play? The Broncos or the Pats? Both are playing great but young, (playoff) inexperienced QBs would have me worried. Also both of them have great futures ahead of them for a couple years before they have to do the whole "Kill The Cap" thing and pay their QBs 25% or more of their cap space annually.

 

[PantherCult]

The Niners can't keep getting away with it.

Not sure what that means... they have the #1 offense in the NFL since Brock Purdy's return to the line-up. The defense is shaky since half their defensive salary is out for the year - but it does come up with sime timely stops and turnovers. But they are legitimately good on offense.

I can't understand why the NFL picked BAL/PIT over SEA/SF. There are zero good teams in the BAL/PIT matchup.

This one is easy... First, SF just played in the Sunday Night slot so broadcast rules being what they are they aren't going to feature the same team in back to back weeks in that Sunday night slot.

But beyond that since one team gets a week off and one team has to play the following week they are ensuring the team that loses and has to play on the road in a Saturday game won't be playing on short rest. They put the Panthers/Bucs game on Saturday as well figuring there's a high chance the winner of the early game may be hosting the loser of the evening game.

So, there are three games with head to head playoff inplications. If the Niners are off the table, then its easy to see why Steelers/Ravens is preferable to Panthes/Bucs.

The Seahawks played a morning game but had to do a five hour flight home afterwards. The Niners played 7 hours later, but were home, so in terms of post-game rest its more or less a wash going into the Saturday game on a short week.

If the Niners pull out a win on Saturday night they could be Super Bowl champs without leaving the Bay Area for two months.

The Seahawks defense is legitimately excellent, so Saturday night should be a good one - but I'm not a believer in Darnold in the clutch yet. I think the Niners have a chance.

I can't believe the Rams decided not to play the first half of last night's game. Playing at Tampa or Carolina is so much preferable to playing at Philly... stumbling in as the 6 seed would be a disaster.

 

[TheSameIdiot]

My hot take is that I really like the Jags.

I don't know. The Pats

They haven't beaten anyone, but I feel decent about them. Maye is already one of the best QBs in the league.

Broncos

You trust that smoke and mirrors act? I don't think Nix is very good, and going down 10+ points in every game is not a recipe for success.

49ers

More on this later.

Bears

Again, this feels smoke-and-mirrors-ish to me. I don't trust a team that won five games last year to win the Super Bowl.

Texans

I agree that the Texans are scary, but the offense is seriously shaky. They're 20th in offensive DVOA.

Seahawks

Shut down JSN and you shut down the Seahawks. I'm a bigger Darnold believer than most, but I'd be lying if I said I thought he could win four straight playoff games.

Not sure what that means... they have the #1 offense in the NFL since Brock Purdy's return to the line-up. The defense is shaky since half their defensive salary is out for the year - but it does come up with sime timely stops and turnovers. But they are legitimately good on offense.

If you trust that defense, more power to you. Turnovers are luck-based, so that isn't reliable.

The defense is 27th in DVOA. I don't think you can win the Super Bowl with a defense that bad.

They've also had tremendous schedule luck, which we knew going into this year.

 

[fac]

Seahawks win it all in their 50th anniversary season, Marinera win it all in their 50th anniversary season. That's my working theory.

But I think the Rams and Eagles have a chance to turn it up a notch in the playoffs, more than I think most of the other teams do. A lot of talent on both those teams still.

 

[Misfit]

I can’t shake the feeling that things are going to “click” for Buffalo and they’ll ride that wave to the Super Bowl. Rams are probably still the best team in the NFC especially if they get Adams back at 100%. Denver might have the best home field advantage in the AFC so I don’t rule them out, but their defense has quietly been pretty bad since their bye week. Seattle feels like the biggest wildcard. If Darnold can just be good, not great, that could be enough to get them to the title game too.

I guess in the end though I’d still go Buffalo and the Rams.

 

[PantherCult]

So I know the "easy schedule' was a story preseason, but by current season strength of schedule the Niners are like right in the middle of the pack at like 16th easiest. (looked it up and its 10th hardest after this weekend) You want to know the easiest schedules?

New England is number 1 and it isn"t that close. Denver, San Diego and Chicago all ended up with much easier schedules. The Niners are currently 4-1 in their division which has 3 teams that will finish with 12 wins.

I'm not naive, their defense isn't stellar - but good enough to hold that Eagles offense in check? The Bills D stinks and held them to lile 17 yards in the second half Sunday. And the Rams are good but are capable of a game like they had Monday Night. The field is wide open and if SF gets to play all its games at home its possible.

 

[canprime]

My hot take is that I really like the Jags.

They haven't beaten anyone, but I feel decent about them. Maye is already one of the best QBs in the league.

You trust that smoke and mirrors act? I don't think Nix is very good, and going down 1the except0+ points in every game is not a recipe for success.

More on this later.

Again, this feels smoke-and-mirrors-ish to me. I don't trust a team that won five games last year to win the Super Bowl.

I agree that the Texans are scary, but the offense is seriously shaky. They're 20th in offensive DVOA.

Shut down JSN and you shut down the Seahawks. I'm a bigger Darnold believer than most, but I'd be lying if I said I thought he could win four straight playoff games.

If you trust that defense, more power to you. Turnovers are luck-based, so that isn't reliable.

The defense is 27th in DVOA. I don't think you can win the Super Bowl with a defense that bad.

They've also had tremendous schedule luck, which we knew going into this year.

Oh I agree, I was just saying that "right now" those teams are playing really well going into the playoffs and that is always a benefit. Of course at least one of them is going to get bounced in the first round/game they play. That is just the nature of playoffs. The top seeds all advancing is the exception, not the norm.

I forgot about Jacksonville. Another strong team doing well going into the playoffs.

Nix is definitely running on a lot of luck and a strong defense versus a weak(ish) schedule. Same for the Pats but Maye is better than Nix in my opinion.

Still as we saw with the Bills/Eagles things can change in a heartbeat. The Eagles lit up the scoreboard the week before and the Bills were one of the higher scoring teams all season (especially in the second half) and yet they both stunk up the joint barely putting up points. I imagine that will be the case for a couple of games in the first round as well.

 

[Misfit]

Any of the games I've watched of Buffalo's where the offense is stagnant mostly comes down to Allen resorting to "hero ball." He wants to go deep, but they don't have the personnel for it. Their offense with its emphasis on tight ends and Cook is really better suited to dink and dunk, death by 1,000 paper cuts, etc. Their big plays in the passing game should probably come from their tight ends on play action and the occasional shot with Cooks now that he's onboard. If the coaching staff can get Allen to buy-in on such an approach then I think they'll do fine against the defenses in the playoffs, Houston being the lone exception. They're good, and unfortunately for Buffalo that game would be in Houston right now if it were to come to pass, but that could change.

As for my Patriots, they go as Maye goes. I think that's way too much to put on the shoulders of a second year player so I don't see them going deep into the playoffs. They may not even get out of the first round as they're already subpar defense is missing key players and they could be down all 3 of their top wide-outs if Diggs gets put on the exempt list (what a jackass). Their left tackle, Will Campbell, is also coming back from a knee injury and who knows what kind of shape he'll be in? Campbell was merely okay at left tackle this year so if he's not at 100% he could look terrible. Their pass rush is moribund (an odd trend for playoff teams this year) and their only path to victory is to put up points, but as we saw just a couple weeks ago against Buffalo, even that isn't a guarantee of victory.