I think there are other examples in the market that are fairly direct analogs. Mythic legions have done several sold out runs of fan favorite characters over the years, and none of those characters are attached to a decades old and generally well regarded milestone of fantasy lit nor are most of those on people's figure of the year contender list.
It's a safe bet folks would still be around. Would if be the same sell through? Maybe not, but I'm going to keep saying this, that's why you simply say during the second run preorder that if you don't get X number of orders it doesn't get made. Run the preorder for a month or whatever and collect the money at the end. If you don't get the support needed for a second run, all you're out is the promotion expenditures for the preorder. If you know you're going to have figure drops that you haven't announced between now and then (and we can assume they will because that seems to be part of their drop strategy) then you slot that one in as a substitute so you don't lose any factory time you've reserved if you had to book that in advance or whatever. If it does get made then you push back the figure you haven't announced.
Like, sincerely, why wouldn't that work? It's safe for them, good for fans, and I don't see any downside except that it makes Elric less scarce.